Market Size Estimation Calculator

How to fill this in

Find Total Regional Sales for your sector in IBISWorld, SBA industry reports, or a trade association. Use the same geographic region for all three regional fields.
Look up Regional Population and Businesses in Region from the US Census Bureau (County Business Patterns for business counts).
Enter your Local Population and count Existing Local Businesses yourself. Google Maps works well for this.
Set Target Market Share conservatively (1 to 5%) to stress-test the worst case.
Enter your Fixed Expenses and look up your sector's typical gross margin on BizStats or CSIMarket.

How to read the results

Forecast Sales vs Break-Even: if forecast exceeds break-even, the opportunity clears the minimum bar.
% of Local Population Needed: under 5% is low-risk. Over 10% means high market dependence.
Market Utilization: under 80% suggests room for a new entrant. Over 100% means the market is saturated.
% of Avg Competitor's Customer Base: under 100% means you need fewer customers to break even than a typical competitor.

Regional Market Data

Total Regional Sales ($) iTotal annual sales for your sector across the wider region. Find in industry reports (IBISWorld, SBA) or trade associations.

Must be a positive number.

Regional Population iTotal population of the region the sales figure covers. Available from the US Census Bureau.

Must be at least 1.

Businesses in Region iNumber of competitor businesses in your sector across the region. Available from Census County Business Patterns.

Must be at least 1.

Revenue per Person ($) iRegional sales divided by population. Used to scale estimated market size to your local area.

People per Business iHow many people each business serves on average. Used to estimate how many businesses your local market can support.

Local Market

Local Population iPopulation of your target local area or catchment zone. Available from the Census Bureau or local government.

Must be at least 1.

Existing Local Businesses iNumber of competitor businesses already operating in your local area. Count them on Google Maps or ask your local chamber.

Cannot be negative.

Estimated Local Market Size iLocal population times regional revenue per person. The estimated total annual spend in your sector in your local area.

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Target Market Share (%) iThe % of local market you aim to capture. 1 to 5% is realistic for a new entrant. Use a low figure to stress-test viability.

Must be between 0.1% and 100%.

Forecast Sales

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Market Saturation

Market Can Support iLocal population divided by regional people-per-business. The number of businesses the local area can sustain at the regional average.

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Room for New Entrants iAdditional businesses the market could absorb beyond those already operating.

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Market Utilization—

Break-Even Analysis

Fixed Operating Expenses ($) iAnnual fixed costs regardless of revenue: rent, salaries, insurance, utilities. Exclude variable costs (captured in gross margin).

Cannot be negative.

Profit per Dollar of Revenue (%) iGross margin: % of each revenue dollar left after variable costs. Coffee shop ~65%, grocery store ~25%. Check industry benchmarks if unsure.

Must be between 0.1% and 100%.

Break-Even Sales Required iFixed expenses divided by gross margin %. The annual revenue you must hit to cover all fixed costs.

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Customers Needed to Break Even iThe number of local customers required to reach your break-even sales figure, based on regional average spend per person.

% of Local Population Needed iBreak-even customers as a % of local population. Under 5% is generally considered low-risk for a new entrant.

% of Average Competitor's Customer Base iBreak-even customers as a % of the average regional business's customer base. Under 100% means you need fewer customers than a typical competitor to break even.